New Climate Scenarios for a Just and Liveable Future

Researchers Laura Pereira, Matthew Ford Gibson, and colleagues are calling for a different kind of climate and biodiversity scenario work — one that better reflects the futures people are trying to bring into being.

Many dominant scenarios still begin from assumptions that leave current systems largely intact. This article asks what becomes possible when scenarios take justice, diverse knowledge systems, imagination, and deep systems change more seriously.

Rather than treating futures work as a technical exercise alone, the authors point to its political and practical importance. The stories, models, and pathways we use to imagine the future shape what is seen as realistic, desirable, or possible. For those working on transformations, this raises important questions about whose knowledge is included, whose futures are made visible, and what kinds of change are opened or closed down.

The article may be especially relevant for those working with scenarios, modelling, futures practice, climate and biodiversity governance, and transformative change.

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